🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader earned a substantial sum on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation. Changing Odds in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the close of the month rose in the hours before President Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the president had been apprehended. A single trader, which registered on the site last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of $32.5K. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Trading information shows that traders assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the morning of the next day, indicating a sharp shift in betting activity right before the official statement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on inside information," said an industry expert. A small number of other traders also profited large payouts from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A new rule put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in recent years, with traders able to predict everything from sports to current affairs. The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market space. An official representative for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."