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The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a high-stakes trip to the US capital to confer with American leader Donald Trump. This constitutes the first face-to-face meeting for the two figures after months of rising strains and sharp rhetoric.

Agenda for Discussion

Venezuela, drug trafficking, energy, regional stability, and US strikes on alleged drug vessels are set to be high on the list of topics when they gather at the White House on Tuesday.

Background of Strained Relations

While the two men were polite in a telephone conversation after a recent American action, Petro has subsequently said he believes there is a "real threat" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has earlier commented that a such action in Colombia "sounds good".

Tuesday's meeting comes after an extended period of the two leaders trading barbs. Petro has often criticised ongoing US strikes on alleged narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the White House's border policies.

"His stance shifted," Trump was quoted as saying ahead of the White House meeting.

Areas of Disagreement

On the US side, Trump has accused Petro's administration of not doing enough to stop the trafficking of narcotics toward the United States, and has pledged to extend strikes to land targets throughout the region.

But, the hostility seemed to subside following a "cordial" phone call involving the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later characterized as an 180-degree turn "by both parties".

Mediating Role

Per diplomatic sources, a key figure – Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the dialogue. "I have faith in diplomacy and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the lawmaker was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relationship to get better."

Border Security and the ELN

Prior to Tuesday's meeting, officials from Bogotá stated that much of the conversation would center on shared US and Colombian worries over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an long border.

Much of that frontier is under the sway of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, controls drug trafficking, extortion, contraband, and unlawful extraction in border states and reportedly works with compromised officials within the Venezuelan government.

For Trump, addressing the threat of the ELN will be vital to ensuring security for US firms involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Analysts point out that the ELN has the potential to disrupt economic ambitions by attacking international businesses and employees, as it has in the past done in Colombia.

Counter-Narcotics Collaboration

An similarly urgent issue for the two presidents will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's biggest source of the narcotic. In November, Petro instituted a halt on information exchange with US security agencies following Trump's threats.

The US has, conversely, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling drug trafficking. It has also imposed restrictions on Colombian officials, including the leader and members of his family.

"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "Any move to sever Colombian cooperation could also weaken all enforcement efforts."

Possible Scenarios

But even with multiple issues for collaboration, the possibility for a confrontation remains. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a ex-official. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avert Trump's anger... However, it's unpredictable."

But for Petro, even a contentious meeting could be beneficial. His presidential term concludes soon, and the results of the meeting could influence the political future of his chosen candidate.

"To an extent, he's kind of in a win-win position," said a regional expert. "If it goes well takes the air out of criticism... If talks sour, he's defending Colombian interests. He could use that in his favor."