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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|